The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) recently released the latest report on global cocoa stocks 2021, including importing countries, exporting countries, producers, carryover stocks and total global stocks. The details are shown in the following table:
| September 30, 2021 | September 30, 2020 | September 30, 2019 | |
| Stocks in cocoa importing countries | 1,106 | 987 | 1,011 |
| Stocks in cocoa exporting countries | 256 | 171 | 215 |
| Manufacturer’s stocks | 95 | 75 | 77 |
| Carry forward stocks | 107 | 81 | 83 |
| Total global stocks | 1,764 | 1,315 | 1,385 |
It can be seen from the table that the total global cocoa stocks in 2021 have increased significantly by 449,000 tons, an increase of 34.14%. This is mainly due to the increase in cocoa production in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana in 2021 and the reduction in global cocoa consumption demand under the epidemic.
Global cocoa production was stable in 2020/21, with production soaring by around 10% to an all-time high of 5.2 million tonnes. Favorable climatic conditions in West Africa have boosted production in the world’s two largest cocoa producers, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, and Nigeria.
In addition, the COVID-19 outbreak is expected to continue to impact cocoa demand. In recent months, many countries and regions are still experiencing a new wave of coronavirus outbreaks and imposed lockdown restrictions again. The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates that cocoa consumption in 2020/21 will gradually recover from a 3.9% decline in consumption in 2019/20, with an increase of only 0.9%.
The world’s three largest cocoa-producing countries, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria, are all expected to experience lower production due to the weather, affecting global cocoa production.
Although the market expects global cocoa production to decrease this year, higher inventories will continue to weigh on cocoa futures prices.